By General Monzer El Ayoubi
Translation: Pierre A. Sarkis
“We lost the war” a statement tweeted by ex-US President Donald Trump in 2018, commenting on what became known as the Trade War between the US and China, and declaring that the US Budget deficit has reached $500 billion, added to another $300 billion as a result of the piracy of intellectual property by China, which would not be tolerated anymore. From this perspective, and without delving into statistics, economic studies and analysis, whether of the debt, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or the mutual escalation in tariffs, it became apparent that President Trump at the time considered trade exchanges with China to be unequal and unfair. Yet, he speculated that his decisions, whose influence seemed weak and limited in the short run, will be in the long run to the best advantage of the US.
On another hand, approximately 11000 km is what separates New York from Beijing, and ironically, the number 11 whether a good or bad omen, is almost equivalent to the timeline, or the number of the expected years by which China would become the leading economic power in the world. Thereafter, the constants of the association between politics and economics were printed on both sides of the coin, complementing one another. There is no doubt that Washington is clearly seeking to pull on the breaks, to prevent China from reaching that position through levying more taxes on exports, and establishing restrictions on production conditions. This is in addition to applying sanctions on different individuals and entities, in order to slow down the rapid growth in Chinese industry, trade, and technological advancement, which is almost at par with the US. Also worrisome to the US, is China’s determination to build its military strength and power, especially its naval power, in an unmatched pace, allowing her to gain bargaining or partnership powers, and not to comply with any conditions from any country in the world, so that its power becomes a tool to serve its political and economic goals and targets.
In correlation, the Chinese leadership is following a long term strategy based on Chinese General and Philosopher SUN TZU’s ideas in his book “The Art of War”, in which he states “faint noises and smooth moves are nothing but rituals used by a tiger before he bears down on his prey”. Furthermore, China embraced and adopted several principles to its qualitative leap forward which included ensuring stability, supporting and promoting resources, technological advancement, wide trade expansion, and building a deterrent military force. Another policy which has taken root is brainstorming as a cultivation, which allows future generations to delve into different insights, notions, and research in various domains and trends, which allows for creativity, development and innovation.
In a related context, competition with the US is almost non-existent for now. It is the world leader in all economic, commercial, financial, technological, and military levels. But how long can the US maintain its supremacy, is the essential question for strategic experts and analysts. After the fall of the Soviet Union and the Communist Bloc in 1991, the two superpower reign and the Cold War came to an end, and thus, the world rotated around one axis, the US. But twenty years passed since an ex-KGB Agent, Vladimir Putin, became the leader of The Russian Federation allowing for the rebuilding of Tsarist Russia, lifting it to the second power status on earth, which meant that the world was now inevitably ruled by three powers, the US, Russia and China. But, things are closely related to the changing circumstances in the US under the Biden Administration, depending on the correction of, or the retreat from, the paths and policies that were established and pursued by President Trump, with allies and enemies alike.
The next question is whether the commercial cold war ignited by President Trump, would reach the boiling point over the cauldron of military power. This seems totally unlikely under a Biden Administration set on a policy of governing the interests of the United States, by following a less stringent and hostile course, which was apparent through the first phone call made by President Biden to his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping. In short, the call stressed the need to keep the Pacific and Indian Oceans Regions free trade areas, with a priority for maintaining prosperity and security for both countries.
Conversely, the US Dollar remains the tool for economic subjection, or Kowtow (1), as the Chinese call it, and military force the tool for the quest for hegemony and leverage, which translate at the moment in the attempt to create an opposing geo-strategic Asian alliance which include Japan, India, Australia, with other countries joining at later dates, such as Indonesia. Just this last week, Great Britain asked to join the alliance. This, along with the presence of the US 7th Fleet, and its theater of operations in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, with headquarters in Japan, and which includes 70 naval warships and around 40000 crew, is a pure indication that US interest and strategy is to confront increasing Chinese power. It is worth noting here that US aircraft carriers of the 7th Fleet group are almost always stationed in the strategic strait, known as the South China Sea, through which one third of all commercial shipments in the world pass.
If the commercial war between the world’s top two economic powers drags on, the results and ramifications will be immense in their frequency or details, and will not end at their doorsteps. Its repercussions and reverberations will be felt, will encompass all countries in the world, and threaten world economic stability, for everyone will be a loser, meaning that a borderline should be drawn to halt the arm-twisting, and follow a much needed path to compromise, especially in light of COVID 19’s scary diverse mutations.
But objectivism in reading the issues in the dossier of possible settlements will surely impose non-adherence to a forefront, or a provision, to end or de-escalate the commercial war, even if it is the essence of the conflict. This comes at a time when the vital priority of US strategic interest has clearly shifted from the Middle East Region, to South Asia, and the fast-paced and accelerating progression of Chinese military power forms one of the main items of the negotiations. The construction of five new huge aircraft carriers indicates a main shift in Chinese defensive military ideology, from defending the mainland, symbolized by the Great Wall, to an offensive capability outside China.
In conclusion, the problem is significant, and needs pages to discuss and analyze, but the sad truth is that the world and most countries interests in global issues, including the US-Sino commercial war, among other issues, do not raise any concern for Lebanon and its rulers. For our national issues, and the collective eternal misfortunes of our people stop at the threshold of the impossible, symbolized by stakes, empowerment, rights and numbers, in conjunction with a horrible decline in the standard of interaction, and the ethics of political conduct unseen in Lebanon, or any other country around the world. SUN TZU said “the control of a large force is the same principle as the control of a few men: it is merely a question of dividing up their numbers”, and to the leader or chief he said “regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look upon them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death”. Do any of our officials read?
1- Kowtow: an old Chinese custom requiring the leaders of subjected people to bend on their knees in front of the Chinese Emperors, while offering goods, products and presents of all kinds, as a symbol of submission to Chinese will and authority.
Beirut, 23/02/2021
