By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation: Dr. Pierre A. Sarkis
As was written and well-expected before the visit to Beirut a few days ago of European Minister and French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, he returned to his headquarters at Quai D’Orsay with a thousand and thousand ideas roaming in his head. Mr. Le Drian was perspiring after he saw, heard, and confirmed that the new breed of the Lebanese Mutated Strain of the political virus started to spread after the statement regarding the possibility of imposing French and European sanctions, without specifying their nature, that will affect prominent Lebanese individuals and officials who contributed to the obstruction of the formation of the Lebanese government.
Next, it has become clear that the mutated version of the dilemma of formation has become profoundly more lethal to the country and its people, and more resistant to the French vaccine originated and manufactured by French President Emanuel Macron, in the historic Parisian Palace. As it looks, if a treatment is found that necessitates the beginning of reform to reconcile the enemy brothers, in a painful settlement reprehensible to the people of the country, its effectiveness has become more difficult, especially after the introduction of the homogenous stimulus factor, meaning the possibility of President-designate Hariri recusing himself from forming a government which may very well accelerate the collapse of the entity.
On another level, and through a reasonable optimistic vision, the treatment of blood clots in case the chemical mix of French-European sanctions was injected in the veins of the Lebanese body, will be in the testimony of the certificate of validity issued by Washington to the laboratories of the indirect negotiations between the 4+1 countries, in order to revive the Iranian nuclear agreement. The rest of the soothing medications for the defibrillation condition and the tensions in the region to avoid apoplexy, will be fed through several doses of spoon feeding Saudi-Syrian dialogue in the Baghdad hospital, in parallel with arrangements to excise the strategic Yemeni tumor leading to proper posturing in Iranian-Gulf relations, and with Saudi Arabia specifically.
Conversely, the permanent expected setback will be in Southern Lebanon where it is accurately calculated, since the border fence for surveillance has been very closely monitored for approximately one month in congruence with the start of unprecedented Israeli military maneuvers in size and proliferation. What added to the possibility of its occurrence was the high emotional stress, resulting from surveying a weakened immune system after a Syrian SAM-5 rocket slipped approximately 300 km into Israeli airspace. Several other reasons that may lead to a setback include: the suspension of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel regarding the endorsement of one of the three maritime demarcation lines; a blatant shortcoming in the dilemma of forming a government which afflicted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following the commissioning by Israeli President Reuven Rivlin of his political foe, Yair Lapid, to form the new government. What is strikingly suspect is the unit of time between the constitutional deadline given to President-Designate Yair Lapid, which is specified at four weeks, and the duration of the maneuvers which will last a month starting Sunday morning.
In a related context, it is also not possible to exclude this ominous period (4 weeks) from the Lebanese internal realities of life and livelihood, considering that the lifting of subsidies on consumable and vital basic products including fuel will definitely happen at the end. This is based as reported, on the expiry of the American banknote (the dollar) from the wards of the Lebanese Central Bank reaching naught, without calculating the mandatory provisions “the depositors’ money”, which is supposed to be available and protected. Unless the scrap of paper containing the total sums of “holdings and debts”, which had been already handed over by Riad Salameh, the Director of the Central Bank, to the President and Prime Minister almost over a year ago was written in secret ink and in this case, it is impossible to read what’s written except through cauterization, by exposing the paper to the heat of the “forensic financial audit”, which is the last treatment.
French Foreign Minister Le Drian, preceded his separate meetings with the authoritarian ruling trio by tweeting that he was visiting Lebanon “carrying a firm message to Lebanese officials, and we will deal sternly with those who are disrupting the formation of the government, and we have undertaken measures… This is only the beginning.” The Lebanese are therefore, waiting for France to deal firmly with the disruptive, obstructive and corrupt politicians, and hope that European governments will put their hands on dubious assets in European banks, the result of corruption and money laundering. Measures, such as, imposing travel restrictions and refusal to grant visas to Lebanese personalities pushed the country towards total collapse along with a mounted stalemate of national complacency and political adolescence, are not enough. It is not up to French “standards” and not a leeway to treatment, accountability and restoration of trust.
Alternatively, there is no doubt that a belated success by French surgeon Macron and his closest aide Le Drian in opening a hatch inside the artery of governmental embolism will provide him with indirect support in his tough presidential campaign in 2022, as dealing with the Lebanese file will be one of his distinguished weapons. Early leaked reports from the corridors of the White House indicate that US President Joe Biden does not mind, but supports an extension to Macron’s term in the Elysee.
Finally, “whoever implants the wind harvests the storm” is a French proverb. These are facets of snow bars that will melt in this Summer’s heat. If inviting Lebanese parties to a conference in Paris is under test, or in the waiting, it confirms that Minister Le Drian’s recent visit was not to announce the end of his country’s initiative from the Palace of Pines, as it was rumored after it was illicitly confirmed to France and the world, that Lebanon’s plight and the unbelievable starving of its people is the work of an unsensible class that has ruled for decades. The tearing up of the Lebanese entity into sectarian segments in geographical structures under disguised federalism, promoted by its political, ideological and feudal backgrounds is the obituary of the demise of the entity which is impossible to happen. As for the treatment of the “Lebanese Metamorphosis”, on the local level in parallel with the international one, it remains subject to the dissemination of the will and stability of the national unity and steadfastness serum. In waiting for the day of judgment, there remains hope, that we will not stay at the isthmus between life and death for too long..
Beirut, 09/05/2021
