By General Monzer El Ayoubi
Translation: Dr. Pierre A. Sarkis
It seems that the cauldron of the region is getting hotter, as indicated by a series of data that predict a hot summer and even confirm it, whether by induction or deduction:
1- Iran is nearing the nuclear age which the US has called the “brink”, where the stockpile of enriched uranium exceeded 3,700 kilograms (the limit according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, is 203 kg). Without going into technical details, the short equation: -the equivalent of enriched uranium of 90%- is enough to produce a nuclear bomb. The first Shiite bomb will not be long overdue, and Tehran may have it before the end of the year. On the opposite side, note that the Bunker Buster, the American “mother of bombs” designed to destroy underground fortifications will also be unable to access the vast tunnel network of Nantaz nuclear facility. The first comment in this regard came from the tongue of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is awaiting the results of the Geneva negotiations when he said “it may soon be able to acquire its nuclear bomb unless the West stands up to Tehran.”
2- Moscow continues to work on its geo-strategic agenda throughout the Asian-European Theater without confusion, knocking out the unipolarity of the US in ruling the planet, giving way to both China and Europe to claim their position in the new polar world. Yet, and despite all what is said about Western-Atlantic military support for the Ukraine, the quantity is inevitably controlled as far as armaments, and the quality is specific in effectiveness and range. Next, the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in the East and North of Ukraine became fully under the banner of the Russian Flag, in conjunction with the siege of seaports to the South on the shores of the Azov Sea and the Black Sea, with the exception of the city of Odessa which is systematically subjected to Russian artillery and rocket fire while the Russian command is delaying the launch of a ground offensive so far, as part of the tactical strategy to manage troops and consider the size of the Odessan fortified defensive bloc and its available capabilities. In the near future, this coming fall will see the start of negotiations to end the Russian military operation and draw up a plan for interim solutions, in parallel with the launching of the reconstruction project to be adopted by the European Union, after integrating Ukraine in it as planned. This prospect is currently a catalyst for Russian armored brigades and with heavy fire support from the long-range artillery force, to continue its operations by putting pressure on important targets “Western weapons storage centers, logistics bases, etc.”, with the continuation of the geographic gnawing leaving to the light-mechanized regiments the task of cleaning up and tightening the grip on Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that “Russian forces now control about a fifth of the country’s territory, including Crimea and territories controlled by pro-Moscow separatists.”
3- On the other side, the Chinese military command has completed its preparation for the invasion of Taiwan which it considers an integral part of its territory, while the military operation is left for the right time and the crucial moment. As for US threat of installing nuclear missiles on the island’s territory, for Beijing it will be a motive for a lightening war, not a deterrent to seizure or retreat. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe stated that the relationship with Washington is passing through a very critical stage and that China is highly ready and prepared to defend its national security against any external threat. Between a warning and a counter-promise, the US President announced that his country will not hesitate to attack China if it attacks Taiwan. The Chinese in a dual answer by the spokesman of the Foreign Ministry confirmed that “Taiwan is an internal Chinese matter and any outside interference will not be tolerated.” In addition, a stern message was sent earlier this month, through supplying the naval forces with a third aircraft carrier “Fujian” which is highly equipped and capable.
4- The Syrian-Turkish-Iraqi-Israeli quadrant witnesses a dialogue of fire on the theater of the first, according to capability and necessity, in line with the geopolitical interests of each party. The Kurdish State remains a dream of a summer night not allowed to be established, in parallel, the Turkish military operation is at zero hour despite serious reservations from Washington, in order to establish a security belt along the Syrian borders at a depth of 30 km. In addition, Israel forbids the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from expanding, or being stationed far from its airstrikes which are free of red lines already imposed, even exceeded, and the raid on Damascus International Airport and disrupting air traffic lately is but an indication of a different phase of the conflict. Also, the Jihadist terrorist groups of ISIS and its affiliates will remain a strategic target for Iraqi forces and their leaders will be hunted down by the US SEALS strike force. The Kremlin quietly continues to move pawns within the Middle East chess box without wanting to bring down the castle or “checkmate”, as long as competition and the conflict remains in the acceptable, open and proportional space, with the facts and circumstances serving Russian geopolitics and stresses the existing status quo, ensuring an ability to guarantee the tackling of changes and developments when necessary.
5- In form and content, and after the global food crisis as a result of the Russian military operation against Ukraine, and in light of the rising inflation and unprecedented rise in the prices of fuel and goods, in addition to vigorous attempts to search for a replacement to the Russian gas feeding European nations, the visit of US President Joe Biden in mid-July to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to meet with the custodian of the two holy mosques and Crown Prince, Mohamed Bin Salman, Biden went beyond his previous accusations of violating human rights and assassinating journalist Jamal Al Khashoggi, a demand approaching a petition to the largest oil producer to convince him to increase production. However, the expected result is a Saudi reservation that secures the margin of maneuver using OPEC cover unless Biden pays the stronger price this time, a step contrary to what former US President Donald Trump said and asked for in padded sarcasm one day. The visit will also include a summit in Jeddah that will bring Biden together with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC), as well as, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq. In this context, the criticism arrows were not delayed for the concessions either from former US diplomats (Alberto Miguel Fernandez, etc.), as well as, analysts of world news networks, keeping in mind that the Middle Eastern trip schedule will not neglect the visit to state 53 (Israel) and meet its leaders.
6- On the other hand, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia will pre-empt the visit of the US President to his country with a mini-regional tour next week that will lead him to Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. In its objectives: strengthen cooperation and advance Saudi-Turkish relations to much higher levels; break the ice in Saudi-Jordanian relations after Jordan’s King Abdullah Bin al-Hussein al-Hashimi revealed Saudi involvement in what was known as the “dissention issue” and the attempt to undermine the political system of government in the country after the involvement of Bassem Awadallah, the former advisor to the Royal Court of Jordan and a high-level advisor in Saudi Arabia; strengthening relations with Egypt, especially “discussing regional and international issues and topics of joint cooperation.” It was also reported this morning that an Egyptian-Jordanian-Bahraini summit was held in Sharam el-Sheikh, with priorities such as, security cooperation, and the exchange of information and expertise in the fight against terrorism to strike its dens and neutralize its cells.
7- The five rounds of Iranian-Saudi talks in Baghdad have not yielded tangible results so far that would end the break in relations since 2016, in order to reach understandings on differences in several files, most notably: the Yemen War, nuclear program, development of ballistic missile systems, extension of Iranian reach in the region and strengthening Hizbollah, Ansar Allah, etc. But, an approach to a regional settlement looms on the horizon and dominates Saudi policy and is welcomed by Iran, with a cautious alteration regarding a supposed rapprochement with the Israeli enemy.
8- The issue of the demarcation line of the maritime border with occupied Palestine and preventing the theft of Lebanon’s gas wealth remains in a state of high and low tide, cutting corners between the known fields of “Karish, Qana, etc.” and the rubber lines: 23-1, Hoff, 29, awaiting a settlement perhaps on the scale of an updated line 26. It is the irony of a chronic loss that has been going on for a decade since the failure to define a negotiating strategy, paralleled with randomness and procrastination; a result of stupidity and a trade-off of interests at the expense of nationalism, or a willful, calculated dependence on the outside which determined in advance the volume of the deal, whether through the threat of harsher and more comprehensive sanctions, or through coercion in the level of distributing the spoils and sharing the revenues fairly and equitably among the leaders of the immoral oligarchy. This is without ignoring the creative talent of establishing a sovereign fund that calculates money and piles the fortune on paper based on a usual fox-style, fraudulent scheme, while the “Fresh Dollar” goes to the pockets of the feudal political and sectarian leaders. Furthermore, the visit of US envoy, Assistant Secretary of State for energy resource security Amos Hochstein, was not to please or save money. His usual smile and the vitality of his presence were cast in the category of showing admiration and artificial astonishment by the rutting Lebanese show of unity, leaving in haste, handing over the painkillers of waiting to US Ambassador Dorothy Shea, to determine the sin of the Lebanese offer and to extend the indirect negotiating sin in the duality of some local collaborators, or silent (theft of wealth and time) until the occupied wells start to release their gas to Europe as an alternative to Russian gas.
Finally, the Lebanese situation is shackled by the latest developments in the conflict of axes and issues of the region, not far from reality but is somehow inflated. In parallel with the screams and suffering of the poor, as well as, the decay of the middle class, the season of boat migration and the theft of people’s savings, the collective playing on the phrase “preserving depositors’ money” with promoting the recovery plan “distribution of losses”, the unpatriotic and irrational local political confusion in conjunction with the bidding of naming a Prime Minister and the formation of a government, with a meal colored with cotton candy by independent and change-seeking deputies, prevails. Simultaneously, the presidential entitlement needs to have the tender book terms prepared to land on a person without delay. I hope that the deadline for unsealing offers will not expire without signing the commitment or swearing of loyalty. Knowing that the void in the nature of things is boring and falling into its hole is deadly and does not guarantee the continuity of survival. It may also be expensive with the fall of the temple, as sitting around the round table under international auspices means imposing a solution directly on the basis of sincerity, without long discussions and explanation of constitutional clauses and the usual jurisprudence.
Beirut, 19/06/2022
Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
