By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation: Dr Pierre A. Sarkis
The complexities of the political scene have deteriorated against the backdrop of the vertical split among Israeli political parties after the President of the Israeli enemy, Reuven Rivlin, commissioned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a new government. Failure of the latter in his mission to secure a government coalition, through forging alliances that support him to ensure political stability, might push things further, either to commission the ideological right-wing ultra-nationalist Knesset Member, Naftali Bennett, or head towards a fifth parliamentary elections in the past 18 months. As long as rivalries prevail and deception is practiced by all, on account of the difficulty of creating a balanced alliance because of the proximity in size and number, starting with the extreme right to the right, to the center and left, and the religious Zionist Party. As it is, political failure remains the master of the situation, as well as, the insurmountable task of forming a new government.
In the defensive failure, the Israeli Military Command sought to build a highly efficient defensive umbrella electronically and technically capable of monitoring and jamming, pursuing or tracking, intercepting and destroying missiles dealing with targets while covering all altitudes and proximity distances, starting with iron dome defense system TAMIR, air defense batteries PATRIOT, catapult DAVID’S SLING, and anti-ballistic missile system HETZ 2 4-3, capable of handling targets in the stratosphere. According to the enemy, the Israeli system failed to intercept a single SA-5 missile launched from Syrian territories “around the city of Damascus”, towards its air target, an F-16C during a raid by the Israeli Airforce on positions inside Syrian territories, and was unable to prevent it from slipping as per Hebrew description, for a distance of 360 km deep into occupied Palestine, where it exploded near the town of Ashalim in the Negev Desert and the vital site of the Dimona nuclear reactor.
Israeli Army spokesman Avichai Adri said that “the Israeli Defense Forces spotted the launching of a surface-to-air missile from inside Syria that exploded in the Negev Desert. In response, our forces attacked the air defense battery which fired the missile from inside Syrian territory (the area of Ad Dameer 40 km to the North East of Damascus). Later, and in a separate statement, the Israeli Army stressed that “the stray missile did not cause any casualties or material damage, nor did it approach the Dimona nuclear reactor.” Alongside came a statement from Israeli Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, acknowledging that “Israel’s anti-missile systems attempted to intercept the SA-5 missile but did not succeed.” In the meantime, Syrian Television’s broadcast of a video documenting the rocket explosion was followed by a commentary from Iranian Revolutionary Guards Coordination Assistant, Mohammed Reza Naqdi, considering that “Israel tried to cover up what happened, but the explosions were clear to everyone.” It was apparent that last Wednesday night into Thursday morning presented deep concern for the Israeli Military Command, after missile shrapnel and fragments fell in the area of Ramat Negev, 40 km from Dimona. From its part, the Ministry of Defense opened an investigation on the causes of the failure after warning sirens set off, and automatically activated the defense system by firing belatedly, an interceptor missile towards the trajectory of the SAM-5 failing to destroy it.
In a related context, the enemy’s military command verified the following:
• The missile was not ballistic, knowing that the SAM-5 air defense missile has the advantage of being converted technically and easily into a surface-to-surface ballistic missile.
• The missile slipping into Israeli depth confirmed the possibility of penetrating the defensive system especially in case of war, where tracking and destroying accurate missile bursts become much more difficult.
• Getting closer to the Dimona nuclear reactor location raised concerns, especially with the most advanced missile interceptor systems in the world stationed there.
• Whether intentional or accidental, the incident confirmed the ability of Hezbollah, Iran and Syria to harm Israel in any possible confrontation or war.
• Any repetition of the incident will prove the zeroing of the serendipity or coincidence factor or error, and will confirm the decision by Syria and Iran to respond to Israeli air strikes, which means that currently, there will not be an expected or needed Russian military cover from a strategic perspective.
• Russian leadership does not work with this mentality, nor need such an operation disguised as a mistake to restrain repeated daily Israeli air strikes on Syria, or to make Israel understand its decision thereof.
• The speed with which Israeli Airforce struck and destroyed Syrian air defense batteries which launched the missile, drops any thoughts of modifying the rules of engagement with Syria.
• The slipping of the missile so deep in Israeli territory, will force research by the enemy’s general staff and experts in order to find a way to fill the gaps and develop the configuration of the missile defense response, knowing that absolute protection does not always exist and is related to reducing the probabilities of missile penetration to the minimum.
• The graveness of what happened, considering it a reckless missile and the failure to intercept it, raises its significance as an existential threat in event of war.
• Confusion on the Israeli home front crystallized on social media tweets and comments, a wave of loss of confidence with ridicule and criticism of the political and military leadership.
• A high-level warning from Avigdor Lieberman, former Israeli Defense Minister, of the possibility “that a missile with a 200 kg warhead could fall on Israeli territory in a different fashion”, acknowledging that “Israel is experiencing governmental paralysis and corrosiveness of its deterrence force.”
On the other hand, with conspiracy deeply embedded in Israeli security mentality, it will not be difficult for the Israeli Mossad to penetrate a set of Syrian defense batteries to launch the missile away from air targets, making its path free, reaching the maximum range and then exploding in the air. Thus, it would be extremely difficult for the Passive Electronic Scanning Matrix of the advanced AN/MPQ-53-6 Radar which the Patriot System is equipped with, to fail to detect any airborne target, determine its speed and trajectory within a 100 km radius, and identify whether the missile is friendly or hostile through the system of friendly weapons encryption. The goal is to enable Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to login to the milieu of the indirect Vienna talks between Tehran and Washington, hinting that the Israeli enemy entity is under threat, in an attempt to force the US to accommodate the numerous Israeli military and security needs. It also falls in the category of pre-empting the negotiations, or at a minimum, urge US President Joe Biden to be very strict in his restrictive conditions of the Iranian nuclear program, and incite him not to lift the imposed sanctions entirely.
In concluding, several questions arise: did the operation bring down the illusion of absolute security? Has the equation of the Dimona reactor versus the Natanz reactor been established? As the Vienna talks progress, the fashion in which the SAM-5 missile was launched was two-folded: either it was a timid attempt to respond to the sabotage operation which targeted sensitive equipment at the Natanz nuclear facility earlier this month, or a bold message from Israeli leadership showing its ability and intention to retaliate in the future.
There will be answers in the coming days, and the arena has always been the means to advance negotiations to achieve maximum possible gains.
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Beirut, 27/04/2021
Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairsا
