By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation: Dr.Pierre A. Sarkis
Since the first day of the 32nd NATO Summit in Washington, DC, things have been moving towards further military escalation, especially on the Europeantheater. Although the Alliance’s decisions areannounced in the media, Moscow’s eyes and ears focused on the event in form and content. The importance of the summit did not come from the fact that it was held on the occasion of the Alliance’s 75thanniversary, but rather that the place of its convening and the person of its president carries the symbolism of reassurance from US President Joe Biden, ensuring the support of the alliance as an entity and military capabilities with the reaffirmation of Washington as the leader of the free world.
Subsequently, the summit focused mainly on the Russian-Ukrainian War, in addition to other issues, dominated by the course of the US presidential elections, while questions were tinged with anxiety and anticipation about the extent of Washington’s commitment to the decisions taken in the event of President Biden’s exit from the White House. From this standpoint, discussions behind the scenes of the conference and during the meetings of the co-chairs (bilateral or more), took place on the future of theAlliance if President Trump manages to win the elections. On this troubling basis, NATO countries sought to assume responsibility for direct military and material support while coordinating aid to the Ukraine, with the goal of avoiding Trump’s rejection of unlimited military support. “Through proportional contributions, the Allies intend to secure a minimum of 40 billionPounds in core financing over the course of the comingyear and provide sustainable levels of security assistance to the Ukraine in order to achieve victory.”
In parallel, and accusing Beijing of playing a key role in supporting Moscow militarily in the war on the Ukraine, NATO leaders said the China-Russia strategic alliance is a matter of deep concern, especially its fight against the Ukraine through its so-called “without borders” partnership with it and its widespread support for the Russian industrial defense base.
In the objective assessment, without diving into the analysis and percentages of a poll, the US presidency seemed to be decisively in favor of the candidate and former president Donald Trump. This came after the famous television debate organized by CNN in the city of Atlanta, in the state of Georgia (one of the electorallyinfluential states), as it constituted a turn in his favor, against a backdrop of the feeling of the American Public that his rival, the current president, Joe Biden, is showing signs of aging (confusion, loss of concentration, mental wandering, etc.). While the debate touched on several national and international issues and concernssuch as abortion, the economic situation, the Gaza War, the Ukraine War, etc., mutual accusations especially those affecting personal life were a dominant feature. On the other hand, the specter of former President Donald Trump has clouded members of NATO who are skeptical of his usefulness, in light of the financial cost and the large arms supplies provided by the US. For what seeps and has seeped from his words and in his tweets is enough to reveal his future decisions under the title America First, which are generally not commensurate with the strategic interests of NATO countries and Europe in general.
In Trump’s view, Russia’s fears of a possible deployment of NATO forces near its borders are legitimate: “if you were in Russia’s shoes, you would never be happy, and this would never be a negotiable issue.”, reiterating his ability to end the Ukrainian War and establish peace between the two countries. While he considers the summit’s decision to proceed with the admission of the Ukraine in NATO to be a major fault, he sees Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “the most skilled sales representative in the world” as he takes billions from Washington and is insatiable, always demanding more, in reference to the aid that the US has lavished on Kyiv in support of its war against Russia since February 2022.
From another angle, “charisma” is defined as the ability to attract and charm others, as well as, influence them, whether by the power of words or by the overwhelming presence of the person away from the skills he possesses, is what distinguishes President Trump from other presidents and leaders, as the assassination attempt he was subjected to and survived a couple of days ago while delivering his speech at acampaign rally in the state of Pennsylvania, did not prevent him from raising his fist within seconds in front of the masses repeating the word “fight”, meaning continue to fight, before the protective Secret Service agents secured his exit from the podium.
In conclusion, the investigations conducted by the FBI may not reveal the backgrounds or motives of the assassination attempt and who is behind it, and if it is possible in this type of crime, the filing cabinets of record keeping is ready to be absorbed. The political and the people’s vertical division that the US is currently experiencing in light of the dysfunction of the American leadership, as a result of US President Joe Biden’s volatile policy, will impose this step to avoid violent reactions that may reach the point of bloody confrontations between supporters of the Democratic and Republican parties.
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*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
