*By General Monzer El Ayoubi
Translation: Dr Pierre A. Sarkis
It was not surprising that former US President and Republican Party candidate Donald Trump was subjected to an assassination attempt during acampaign rally in the State of Pennsylvania amid crowds of his supporters. In the field-based incentives, the conditions are considered favorable for such execution, as the election campaigns and rallies, as wellas, the size of the participating audiences (tens of thousands), facilitate the gunman’s access to the shooting site to carry out his crime and exploit the chaos that ensues, which will allow him to leave the scenequickly and quietly. Moreover, the schedule of theseannounced election campaigns and rallies allows the offender to choose the appropriate time and place. This permits the overlooking of several of these events that happen usually far from any threats, which causes reverse excess trust, in the sense of the relaxed close and distant security procedures by the Secret ServiceAgency, and thus, a deadly routine controls the efficiency of the Agency and the levels of its procedures.
In political incentives, as given by intelligenceaccounts, fortune tellers and cup readers could have predicted the assassination attempt because the reasons for taking the decision to neutralize the man seemed available, intersecting with several affected parties and agencies whether enemies or opponents. According to the following, the television debate on CNN caused a negative impact on current President Joe Biden, as the slow physical response was evident, as well as, the low level of mental or intellectual focus in front of his rival Trump, the most solid and far-sighted of the two, with a clear-thinking methodology, while most opinion polls confirmed the possibility of the latter winning and returning to the White House.
President Trump’s statements and tweets opposing President Biden’s policy revealed what is expected of his performance regarding domestic policy (tax cuts, healthinsurance, economic relations with China, unemployment and inflation, etc.), and the decisions he will take on the foreign policy and international crises levels, which means a radical change in Washington’s strategies on the world state, including:
1- Reducing the massive financial and militarysupport that the Ukraine receives to confront Russian defense expansion against NATO.
2- The return of the Iranian nuclear agreement to square one with the suspension of negotiations, in addition to the re-tightening of the economic and financial blockade on Iran.
3- Reducing the military deployment of the US Marines in different regions of the world, such as the military bases in Syria (Ain al-Assad, Rmeilan, Malikiyah, etc.) while keeping the M4 strategic base.
4- Stopping the Gaza War and arranging the status of the Palestinian Authority in a way that pushes forthe two-state solution, knowing that this solution was banned by the Israeli Knesset in its session two days ago, in addition to the reintroduction of resolution 1701 on the northern border of Israel with Lebanon while containing what is consideredthe threat of Hizbollah (Party of God).
5- Settling economic relations with China and relaxing the increasing military growth of the Chinese Armyin light of the strategic alliance with Russia and the issue of the island of Taiwan.
6- Return of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty after Moscow revealed that the US had taken out weapons banned by the treaty for deployment in the Asia-Pacific regions.
7- Biden’s continued candidacy will give the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate to the Republican Party, which means full control of President Trump over the institutions of the deep state and the smooth passage of his decisions and policies in Congress.
The motives and backgrounds behind the assassination attempt, whether personal or political,have not yet been determined according to FBI sources. The available constants point to the reality of the non-theoretical conspiracy according to the following:
a- The attacker Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, purchased 50 rounds of his AR-15 semi-automatic rifle from a local arms store hours before the incident.
b- Three explosive devices and a remote detonator were found inside his car.
c- Possession of two cell phones, where the primary phone was seized at the scene with a transmitter.
d- The security response of the protection agents poses gaps in the investigation regarding the killing,rather than the arrest of the gunman.
e- In his identification, there are several questions; his affiliation with the Republican Party; following the Jewish Religion; no indications that he suffers from mental health problems; his personal accounts on social media do not contain language or indications that represent a threat or suspicion of any associations with terrorist groups.
From another perspective, the facts and the course of events confirmed that security deficiency was remarkable to the extent of negligence:
– The plan to secure the protection of the scene of the rally was not implemented by the Secret Service.
– There was no security survey of the scene.
– Ignoring to identify points of entrenchment in overlooking and high places near the scene.
– Lack of visual observation of the scene whether human or technical.
– Lack of search of the surrounding buildings within the circle of the shooting, especially the building that the gunman climbed.
The incident resulted in an injury to Trump and the death of one of the attendees, as well as, injuries to two others, before the officers of the Secret Service neutralized the gunman. The justification added to the confusion after the announcement that these tasks were left to the local police teams, which raises many questions about the seriousness of the performance, whether it was intentional or blatant negligence, in addition to several data that may appear later.
In view of the above, US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas denied allegations that security authorities refused to bolster Trump’s security, pledging to conduct a security review of what happened and provide full answers to the details of the incident.Secret Service Director Kimberly Chettle revealed plans for tighter security adjustments since Saturday to make sure Trump is protected during the remaining period of the election campaign.
In the logic of things and professionalism, as well as, security briefings, nothing prevents the repetition of the assassination attempt, especially since the period forholding the elections is several months away, which will impose more seriousness as far as the measures takenand the change in tactics at the levels of preventive security and tactical information, in ways that reduces the possibility of targeting and impact, which raises the degree of protection to 90% and 10% for reaction. Also to be casually noted is the discretion of RussianPresident Vladimir Putin to contact his friend President Trump in order to avoid any explanations that may be exploited by the instigators, or divert the investigations from their supposed course.
Finally, the political stage in the US today is highly sensitive as the assassination attempt apparently deepened the socio-political division despite President Trump’s call for unity and solidarity of political leaders with him, led by current President Joe Biden, as future days will reveal many facts. This is especially if Trump returns to the White House as expected and if the facts are kept secret, in order to avoid repercussions and consequences that may ignite American streets and lead to undesirable ramifications.
Tripoli, 18/7/2024
*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
