*By General Monzer El Ayoubi
Translation: Pierre A. Sarkis
US President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East Tension Zone was nothing more than a pastoral visit of an exploratory nature, both in form and substance, and in summary and without detailed footnotes, it can be deduced that:
– In Tel Aviv, he pledged to the head of the usurping entity, Isaac Herzog, and Prime Minister Yair Lebid to “give new impetus to the process of Israel’s integration with the Arab normalization countries which were joined over the past two years by the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, in addition to curbing Iran’s active nuclear program and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons; in the military aspect, the renewal of the partnership with regard to the ”most advanced defense systems”- the anti-missile and anti-march laser system AN/SEQ-3 Laser Weapon System.
– In Bethlehem, following his meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and in hollow and sterile terms, he renewed Washington’s commitment to the broad title “The Two-State solution that includes the existence of an independent, sovereign and geographically contiguous state of Palestine.” However, in consolation about implementation saying “it seems elusive now because of the restrictions imposed on the Palestinians” pledging $300 million to UNRWA and Jerusalem hospitals.
– In Saudi Arabia, his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman at the Peace Palace was a kind of coordinated rapprochement in its goal of restoring bilateral relations and removing the hollowness on the path of “washing hearts” diplomacy that folds remorse. In his speech to the participants in the regional summit that included Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council, in addition to Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan, he reiterated Washington’s strategic vision at the regional level… (His country will remain fully engaged in the Middle East and will not leave the stage for other world powers to exert influence, we will not leave a vacuum filled by China, Russia or Iran), adding that the US is committed to ensuring that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. He demanded at the same time an immediate increase in oil and gas production to ensure the reduction of high prices and addressing the thirst of European markets for Russian gas.
– Almost at the same time that the US President’s plane took off from King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, the Ilyushin 300-96 landed at Mehrabad Airport in the Iranian Capital Tehran with Russian President Vladimir Putin on board, while the accompanying squadron of Sukhoi-35 fighter jets was reclining to the skies of the Caspian Sea; and on the tarmac, the presidential car Aurus Senat “The Creeping Beast” was waiting for him to meet with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. In the same context, the importance of the visit doubled with the arrival of Turkish President, Recep Tayyep Erdogan, where a trilateral Russian-Iranian-Turkish summit was held that discussed many files in particular:
– Reload the Turkish mediation with the acceptable Russian parameters to lift the blockade imposed on the exports of Ukrainian grain and fertilizers from the ports of the Black Sea, which led to breaking the stalemate in this file and later resulted in the signing of the “determinants” of the Istanbul Tripartite Agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Turkey under the auspices of the United Nations, ensuring the export of 5 million metric tons per month and thus, alleviating the severity of the growing global food crisis which has worsened due to the Russian military operation.
– Avoid the Turkish military operation targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces and Kurdish fighters in the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat to establish a buffer and safe border zone. Putin and Raisi warned Erdogan against the consequences of launching the attack for several reasons, including: avoiding a new wave of displacement, the Russian agreement with the Kurds, strengthening the regime’s forces with heavy weapons and missiles. While the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni stressed during his reception with Erdogan that a Turkish military operation would “harm” Syria, Turkey and the region. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu declared that “we can exchange ideas, but we have never and will never ask for permission for our military operations against terrorism.”
– A return to the Kazakh capital Nursultan and follow the path of the Astana Peace Process aimed at ending the ongoing Syrian conflict since 2011, while strengthening efforts to make the talks between the Syrian Government and the opposition a success in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and its provisions. In the Tripartite final statement, he replied: “Russia, Turkey and Iran renew their commitment to the territorial integrity of Syria, and to continue cooperation against separatist schemes that threaten Syria’s sovereignty and the national security of neighboring countries.”
On the other hand, a new characterization of the Tehran Summit “positive contrast” can be used as imposed by political objectivity: if the summit comes in response to the visit of the US President to the region, Turkey is an ally and a key member of NATO. Also, its non-participation or exclusion from the Jeddah Regional Summit puts it in a different orbit within Washington’s strategy.
The exclusion of Syria from the Trilateral Summit which was the main issue, puts it in the orbit of dependence on Moscow and Tehran, a kind of granting an exclusive agency in self-determination (buying and selling), while retaining the right to the life investment “veto” when necessary. In the military sphere, the “Iranian drone deal” between Moscow and Tehran came to change the rules of the game on the Ukrainian stage, in a clear response to Erdogan about Ankara providing the Ukrainian rival with armed drones of the type “Bayraktar Mini UAV”, which proved effective and was considered a decisive factor “in surveillance, control and destruction throughout the war that has been going on since February 24. Iran will provide Russia with the Simorgh hidden drones, and updated version of the US RQ-170 Sentinel that crashed in Iran in 2011, and is able to gather intelligence, jam defenses and destroy targets accurately and effectively. By extension, the Tehran Summit may represent an “accidental” response to Biden’s Middle Eastern tour, but it is basically part of the strategic alliance between Moscow and Tehran, in addition to consolidating the parallel coordination track with Ankara while the remedies are “retail.”
In variables, glut and acceleration without consistency limit random atom collision. The region is in a state of imbalance between two conflicting axes and the geopolitical extension of the conflict is unprecedented; the repercussions on the internal Lebanese situation are known as tragic, unable to devise solutions or implement what is available. Marionette intertwined puppeteer threads in the theater confirm the practice of the fairy game; the puppet instigator is good at composing and directing presidential and governmental puppet shows with the names of characters being replaced at times and voices changing at other times, leaving the audience of spectators to tear apart the worn rags of laws and constitution.
It is noteworthy that the failure to demarcate the boundaries of parliamentary blocks in parliament whether mathematically or popularly, will add ambiguity to the desired future surpassing the process of demarcating the maritime border with the Israeli enemy and the booby-trapped offers of the head of the American negotiations’ delegation, Amos Hochstein. Whereas, the three drones that hovered over the Energine exploration and extraction platform in the Karish field is a warning to preserve Lebanon’s lost right between tension lines 23 and 29 without adjusting the frequency capacity.
However, in the eyes of observers, it does not stray too far from a harmonious Russian-Iranian decision to prevent the extraction of Mediterranean gas and its supply to Europe at this stage, as part of the process of biting or amputating gangrened fingers, originally a result of the upcoming European frost.
Beirut, 27/07/2022
*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
