By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation: Dr. Pierre A. Sarkis
On the night of Saturday, April 3, a Military Police and Intelligence Agency joint-force carried out a series of raids in the Jordanian capital Amman, resulting in the arrest of more than twenty people, including a number of key influential figures, such as, Al Sharif Hasan Bin Zayd, the former envoy of Jordanian King Abdullah to Saudi Arabia, Bassem Al Awad Allah, former head of the Royal Court, and Yasser Al Majali, former Director of the office of Crown Prince Hamza Bin Al Hussein, the king’s eldest brother, after placing the Crown Prince under house arrest at his home in the capital. It is expected that the arrests will expand in accordance with the developing investigations, and what details will be revealed.
In the beginning, ambiguity was the master of the situation amid very circumspect night activity featuring an extensive spread of security forces and the army, until an expected striking initial statement was released by the Chief of Staff of the Jordanian Army, Major General Yusuf Al Huneiti, in which he explained that he had asked the former Crown Prince to freeze his activities and meetings, which affect and target the security and stability of the kingdom, and to stop all communications with individuals actively working against the Jordanian leadership, either directly, or through social media. He later announced that investigations were being conducted by Jordanian Intelligence, namely the “General Intelligence Directorate”, run by Major General Ahmed Husni Hanukai, and that results will be announced in all transparency, as soon as investigations were completed. Conversely, reports circulated, and foreign intelligence services were quoted as saying that a coup attempt was planned by Prince Hamza, who had been previously relieved of his duties as Crown Prince in 2004. While Jordanian leadership denied reports of the arrest of Prince Hamza Bin Al Hussein, an audio tape was leaked and received by the BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) in which the Prince himself said that he was detained under house arrest, along with several of his bodyguards.
Simultaneously, between denial and confirmation, foreign media dwelled on the accuracy of the failed coup attempt as was described, but the security situation was subdued and under control. On the following day, successive messages of support for the King of Jordan rolled in, whether from Arab or foreign countries declaring solidarity and concern for the Kingdom’s stability and security. Striking was the visit to the Jordanian Capital by Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal Bin Farhan, and his meeting with his counterpart, Ayman Al Safadi, after which, intelligence sources revealed that the Saudi Regime demanded the release of Bassem Awad Allah before the results of the investigations were completed. The New York Times in its issue the day before, on April 7, hinted at some role by Saudi Arabia in the coup attempt. On the other hand, and the next day after the arrests, Saudi Arabia issued a statement expressing support for the King of Jordan and the Saudi media press announced that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman held a phone call with King Abdullah, offering his solidarity and support. US President Joe Biden also contacted the king expressing his administration’s support for, and solidarity with the Jordanian ally, stressing the continued efforts towards the promotion of a Palestinian-Israeli settlement, through the two-state solution. Statements of condemnation and denunciation, as well as, endorsement and backing poured in from different countries, such as, Kuwait, Lebanon, Bahrain, Qatar, Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab League.
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has always been on the line of political and existential earthquakes, facing regional and internal challenges, and this “preservation of the kingdom, its security and system of government with the historical continuity and survival of the Hashemite Family”, has been, and continues to be the strategic priority for King Abdullah Bin Al Hussein, and his late father King Hussein before him. From this perspective, there are numerous backdrops to what actually transpired, through the course of developments, or the merits of posturing:
• The deteriorating economic and living conditions, in addition to the shrinking job opportunities and low standard of health care, which were considered an exploitable opportunity, in order to obtain popular legitimacy by the perpetrators of the coup, or the agitators.
• The Syrian refugee camps and the pressure they put on the economy, and through them, the possibility and ease of security breakdowns, in addition to the burdens imposed by confronting and reducing the spread of the Corona Pandemic.
• Enemy Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced his intention and decision to annex part of the West Bank, along with the occupied Jordan River, the Jordan Valley, and the Northern Dead Sea under Israeli sovereignty, while the Jordanian leadership considers this annexation a dangerous escalation that could push the entire region towards further violence.
• An attempt to reduce to naught Jordan’s historical guardianship over Jerusalem and the Holy Shrines of Islam and Christianity.
• The continuous attempts by the Israeli enemy to implement its strategy of finishing off the Palestinian issue, in accordance with its doctrine of an alternative Palestinian homeland, a Palestinian-Jordanian federation, with the interim transfer of the Gaza Strip to Jordanian Sovereignty, initially planned through the Deal of the Century (as proposed by the Trump Administration).
• The warning of King Abdullah of the consequences of moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
• The rejection by Jordan of the Deal of the Century which led to normalization agreements between Israel, the UAE (The United Arab Emirates), and Bahrain which would eventually end the state of hostility between Arab countries, including Palestinians, and the Israeli enemy, considering its terms a clear, flagrant attempt to target Jordan, its existence and entity, through the Deal.
Next, in reading the reasons, data, circumstances and what happened, the New York Times in its report, summarized what happened to be extremely important for Israel, in addition to what was leaked by sources close to Jordanian Intelligence, that investigations uncovered contacts between former Israeli Mossad (Israeli Intelligence) officer, Roy Shaposhnik with Prince Hamza Bin Hussein’s wife on Saturday evening, after which, he received a text message from Prince Hamza informing him that he was placed under house arrest, and denied any communications or access to the outside world. Thus, it became apparent that the Israeli enemy was the biggest or sole beneficiary, perhaps through secret complicity, and without at least any objections from some of the Arab countries.
Thus, it should be taken into account that the collapse of the Jordanian Regime will have severe ramifications on all countries in the area and region, like a massive snowball changing the geopolitical scene for the remaining countries, not affected by what became known as the Arab Spring (anti-government popular movements starting in Tunis and spreading to different Arab countries). Its repercussions will be pivotal for Lebanon’s entity, as the outcome of the 1970 conflict between the Jordanian Army and the Palestinian factions, known as Black September, following the growing strength and increasing hegemony by Palestinian fighters at the expense of Jordanian authority, is still embedded vividly in Lebanese memory. At that time, King Hussein settled the unrestrained predicament militarily, ending the conflict which was infiltrated by intelligence services from neighboring countries, whereas its results were devastating for Lebanon, after armed Palestinian factions used neighboring Syria as a passage bridge facilitated by Syrian leadership, to move into Lebanon, with Arab and International countries turning a blind eye, or showing total disregard for the ensuing situation.
In a related context, the message was received, with its aims and targets, wherever it came from, and whoever the perpetrators were, and it became obvious that the dissension, whether “a coup or rebellion”, was extinguished brutally and efficiently in its infancy, and as the Jordanian leadership started to cover up what happened, especially within the Hashemite Family, Royal Palace circles announced yesterday that Prince Hamza is not under arrest but “is in his house under the custody of King Abdullah”, in parallel with the redeployment of the armed forces and its strict measures, enforced at important road junctions and government centers in the capital.
In concluding, and in light of the current and expected dangerous regional changes, the Middle East stands to be surely affected by any collapse of the Jordanian Regime, which forces Arab Countries to waive hatred, grudges and conspiracies against each other. Jordanian investigations by security and judicial services whether revealed or remaining a secret, and what remains marginal in its details and results, will lead to measures commensurate with them, internally and regionally. God protects fraternal Jordan.
—————-
*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
Beirut, 08/04/2021
