By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation:Dr. Pierre A. Sarkis
The signing last Saturday of the comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Iran and China received wide international and regional attention, as well as, on the Iranian interior scene where it was received with some reservations, especially following information about supposedly, existing additional secret addendums. This was expressed by ex-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nijad, when he said “the Iranian Nation will not recognize a new secret 25-year agreement between Iran and China” warning that any contract signed with a foreign country without the knowledge of the people, would be null.
First, in terms of form, the signing ceremony was held at the Iranian Foreign Ministry broadcasted live by local media, and signed by Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohamed Jawad Zarif, and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.
Second, in terms of incentives, Iran has a unique geographical location in South-West Asia, where it overlooks the coastlines of the region’s most important strategic basins: the Persian Gulf, the Arab Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Caspian Sea, as well as, sharing land borders with seven adjacent countries. This geographical position renders it the natural corridor of world trade, and a transit bridge between China and East and North Eastern Asian countries. It will contribute to the realization and revitalization of what is known as the historic “Silk Road”, which would link China to others countries on the continent, in addition to the realization of the ambitious Chinese transcontinental transit project, “the Belt and the Road.” The latter will establish a wide-open door for Chinese exports to the European and African continents through the transit area, Iran. Moreover, it will guarantee Iran huge financial returns, allowing it to make a qualitative leap on the economic and commercial levels, let alone regional influence.
Third, in terms of context, and regardless of timing, and in light of the harsh US sanctions imposed on Iran, and the return to the Iran Nuclear Program Agreement, along the detailed enumerations and readings of the terms of the agreement, the latter has been addressed by strategic research and analysis institutions to the extent of “the enough and the sufficient.” This is natural in view of the repercussions and consequences of the agreement on both, the regional and international levels. In its urgency, it is enough to conclude that it is an agreement that raises the stakes of the relations between the two parties, and guarantees a 25-year strategic alliance dealing with diverse domains, starting with economic and industrial cooperation, trade exchange, infrastructure and means of transportation, sources of energy, along with military and technological aid. Also, it can be considered a vital life-line to the Iranian economy on one side, and a deepening of Chinese influence in the region. The important question being asked here is whether this partnership and close strategic association, between two distinct ideological doctrines and political systems, “Islamic Iran and communist China”, can succeed.
The world is ever changing in politics and geopolitical interests, as each country behaves according to what serves the realization of its strategic goals and objectives. The historical principle “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” was always adopted in pragmatic international relations and alliances. If the regime in China is an oligarchy, meaning the rule of the minority, and the one-party system of the Communist Party wielding absolute power and control over the country’s resources, and adopts the law of “regional and national self-rule”, the Iranian Regime is totally different. The Regime in Iran is described as a theocracy, in that it is “the rule of clerics or a religious government”, based on the principle of “Islam is a religion and a state constitution”, keeping in mind that this slogan is the subject of a major controversy that incites a lot of discussions, debates, and differences among scholars and opinion leaders. The Iranian constitution has defined Islam as the state religion, and the confession of the Shiite Twelvers (ithna ashariyya- the largest confession in Shiite Islam) the official government denomination. There is no doubt that both countries have bypassed their ideological antagonism and diverse political systems, with the priority given to their mutual strategic interests, for what unites them is greater than what separates them. They both share antagonism for Western democratic systems and their pluralistic political concepts, in addition to their mutual chronic hostility towards the US. If the bilateral strategic agreement guarantees a correlation in time for 25 years, this time frame will foster a change in the expected backdrop in regional and international policies, with its repercussions and ramifications, not least of which, are the US sanctions which both countries suffer from, albeit the sanctions and their causes are different for each country.
In a very reserved reaction, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki, and in response to a question about US reaction to the news of the recent agreement between Tehran and Beijing, commented that “we will wait and see if there are any additional sanctions that can be levied in light of the partnership between China and Iran, but we have not checked the details of the agreement yet.”
Finally, the stakes remain on the steadfastness of the alliance, and while the strategic partnership caught Washington off guard, the Middle East Region remains loaded with surprises and variants. The vast geographical expanse, from the South China Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean with its geopolitical and historical ideological backgrounds, is rife with contradictions, if not political dilemmas and upheavals. It remains that the moral is not only in its implementation, but in its longevity.
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Beirut, 03/04/2021
*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
